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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Cascade Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Almost Disbandedwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Cascade Esports

Rubick
Rubick
jAMES · 9 games
44%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Shisui · 6 games
50%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
MieRo · 4 games
25%
Io
Iooften banned
Zitraks · 4 games
25%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Kidaro · 4 games
0%
Mirana
Mirana
jAMES · 4 games
50%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Shisui · 4 games
0%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Zitraks · 3 games
33%

Almost Disbanded

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
398 picks · 908 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
370 picks · 545 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
323 picks · 590 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
290 picks · 536 bans
56%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
286 picks · 252 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
255 picks · 166 bans
50%
Wraith King
Wraith King
241 picks · 395 bans
56%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
238 picks · 524 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 71%
Hero pool strength55% Almost Disbanded
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Almost Disbanded
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:41
Cascade Esports 34%Almost Disbanded 66%
The model gave 66% on Almost Disbanded — the game was taken by Almost Disbanded in 36:26.
Game 2prediction correct44:22
Cascade Esports 34%Almost Disbanded 66%
The model gave 66% on Almost Disbanded — the game was taken by Almost Disbanded in 32:32.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlmost Disbanded · 66%
Series resultAlmost Disbanded 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2