EPIC League Season 3 Division 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Uniquewin 2:0series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Empireloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Unique
No games played over 6 months.
Team Empire
Phoenixoften banned
sayuw · 10 games
Death Prophetsignature
Petushara · 8 games
Shadow Shaman
sayuw · 8 games
Earth Spirit
sayuw · 7 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Smiling Knight · 7 games
Clockwerk
sayuw · 5 games
Medusaoften banned
Smiling Knight · 5 games
Disruptor
EcNart · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
398 picks · 905 bans
Void Spirit
370 picks · 545 bans
Mars
323 picks · 589 bans
Death Prophet
290 picks · 534 bans
Earth Spirit
286 picks · 252 bans
Rubick
255 picks · 166 bans
Wraith King
241 picks · 392 bans
Keeper of the Light
238 picks · 524 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 41%
Hero pool strength52% Team Empire
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total52% Team Unique
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:13
Team Unique 52%Team Empire 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Unique — the game was taken by Team Unique in 50:41.
Game 2prediction correct17:29
Team Unique 52%Team Empire 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Unique — the game was taken by Team Unique in 42:18.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Unique · 52%
Series resultTeam Unique 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2