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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
VP.Prodigywin 2:0
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:0
V-Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

VP.Prodigy

Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Noticed · 11 games
73%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
dSa · 11 games
45%
Rubick
Rubick
forcemajor · 10 games
40%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Larl · 9 games
56%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
dSa · 7 games
43%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
dSa · 6 games
83%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Noticed · 5 games
40%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
forcemajor · 5 games
80%

V-Gaming

Mars
Marsoften banned
laise · 5 games
80%
Rubick
Rubick
ArrOw · 3 games
33%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Dodren · 3 games
100%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
ArrOw · 3 games
67%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
TA2000 · 2 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Dodren · 2 games
50%
Lion
Lion
ArrOw · 2 games
100%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Kiritych · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
398 picks · 898 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
370 picks · 543 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
322 picks · 584 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
288 picks · 531 bans
55%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
285 picks · 251 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
255 picks · 165 bans
50%
Wraith King
Wraith King
240 picks · 391 bans
57%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
238 picks · 523 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)22% vs 55%
Hero pool strength54% V-Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% V-Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:16
VP.Prodigy 37%V-Gaming 63%
The model gave 63% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 31:42.
Game 2prediction missed26:20
VP.Prodigy 37%V-Gaming 63%
The model gave 63% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 34:55.
Model check result
Model favoriteV-Gaming · 63%
Series resultVP.Prodigy 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2