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EPIC League Season 3 Division 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
VP.Prodigyloss 0:1
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 0:1
EXTREMUMwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

VP.Prodigy

Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Noticed · 11 games
73%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
dSa · 11 games
45%
Rubick
Rubick
forcemajor · 10 games
40%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Larl · 9 games
56%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
dSa · 7 games
43%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
dSa · 6 games
83%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Noticed · 5 games
40%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
forcemajor · 5 games
80%

EXTREMUM

Mars
Marsoften banned
Shachlo · 14 games
57%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
mellojul · 13 games
38%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
G · 12 games
83%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 11 games
55%
Puck
Pucksignature
mellojul · 9 games
78%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Chuvash · 8 games
63%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
G · 8 games
25%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Nefrit · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
398 picks · 898 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
370 picks · 543 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
322 picks · 584 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
288 picks · 531 bans
55%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
285 picks · 251 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
255 picks · 165 bans
50%
Wraith King
Wraith King
240 picks · 391 bans
57%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
238 picks · 523 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)24% vs 52%
Hero pool strength52% EXTREMUM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% EXTREMUM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
VP.Prodigy 34%EXTREMUM 66%
The model gave 66% on EXTREMUM — the game was taken by EXTREMUM.
Model check result
Model favoriteEXTREMUM · 66%
Series resultEXTREMUM 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1