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FMWH Dota2 Championship Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:1
EHOMEloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Puck
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 11 games
91%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 8 games
63%
Tusk
Tusksignature
XinQ · 8 games
88%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
y` · 7 games
57%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 7 games
71%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 7 games
43%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Faith_bian · 6 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
y` · 5 games
80%

EHOME

Mars
Marsoften banned
Chalice · 10 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
xNova · 9 games
56%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Xm · 5 games
40%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Xm · 4 games
25%
Lion
Lion
Frisk · 4 games
50%
Luna
Luna
Frisk · 4 games
100%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Chalice · 4 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Frisk · 4 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
397 picks · 894 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
369 picks · 539 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
320 picks · 583 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
286 picks · 529 bans
56%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
285 picks · 248 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
255 picks · 165 bans
50%
Wraith King
Wraith King
239 picks · 391 bans
56%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
238 picks · 523 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 56%
Hero pool strength58% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total56% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:39
LGD Gaming 53%EHOME 47%
The model gave 53% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 55:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetFaith_bian
60% · 48 games44% · 49 games
TimbersawChalice
Timbersaw
Slark
SlarkAme
64% · 6 games49% · 39 games
BloodseekerSylar
Bloodseeker
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNothingToSay
49% · 137 games55% · 61 game
Ember SpiritXm
Ember Spirit
Viper
Vipery`
50% · 28 games41% · 81 game
GrimstrokeFrisk
Grimstroke
Tusk
TuskXinQ
53% · 57 games49% · 46 games
ClockwerkxNova
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed20:36
LGD Gaming 54%EHOME 46%
The model gave 54% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by EHOME in 40:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordAme
49% · 86 games39% · 49 games
MorphlingSylar
Morphling
Enigma
EnigmaFaith_bian
44% · 40 games47% · 177 games
PuckXm
Puck
Death Prophet
Death ProphetNothingToSay
66% · 134 games48% · 126 games
MarsChalice
Mars
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanXinQ
50% · 123 games45% · 28 games
Dark WillowFrisk
Dark Willow
Undying
Undyingy`
60% · 60 games47% · 63 games
TuskxNova
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct33:15
LGD Gaming 53%EHOME 47%
The model gave 53% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 34:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Io
IoAme
44% · 42 games43% · 25 games
JuggernautSylar
Juggernaut
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
60% · 62 games47% · 16 games
Queen of PainXm
Queen of Pain
Sand King
Sand KingFaith_bian
46% · 18 games50% · 69 games
MarsChalice
Mars
Mirana
MiranaXinQ
54% · 52 games49% · 40 games
GrimstrokeFrisk
Grimstroke
Elder Titan
Elder Titany`
48% · 26 games47% · 50 games
TuskxNova
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 56%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3