Moon Studio Spring Trophy · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:1series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
LBZSloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Xtreme Gaming
Puckoften banned
bLink · 3 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Storm · 3 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Storm · 2 games
Linaoften banned
Storm · 2 games
Ursaoften banned
Storm · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Storm · 1 game
Templar Assassinoften banned
Storm · 1 game
Troll Warlordoften banned
Storm · 1 game
LBZS
Earth Spirit
CatYou · 8 games
Elder Titan
xiaofu · 6 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
MS · 5 games
Undyingoften banned
xiaofu · 5 games
Tusk
CatYou · 4 games
Centaur Warrunner
Irving · 3 games
Disruptor
xiaofu · 3 games
Medusaoften banned
MS · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
397 picks · 891 bans
Void Spirit
369 picks · 539 bans
Mars
320 picks · 581 bans
Death Prophet
285 picks · 529 bans
Earth Spirit
285 picks · 245 bans
Rubick
255 picks · 164 bans
Wraith King
239 picks · 391 bans
Keeper of the Light
238 picks · 523 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 33%
Hero pool strength55% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:38
Xtreme Gaming 50%LBZS 50%
The model gave 50% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by LBZS in 34:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Death ProphetStorm
LifestealerMS
60% · 21 game
Enigmaxiaofu
55% · 16 games
PangolierCatYou
Game 2prediction correct28:10
Xtreme Gaming 53%LBZS 47%
The model gave 53% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 26:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WindrangerStorm
Weaverxiaofu
little data
SlarkMS
44% · 5 games
TuskCatYou
Game 3prediction correct33:19
Xtreme Gaming 52%LBZS 48%
The model gave 52% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 40:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WindrangerStorm
SlarkMS
57% · 3 games
Enigmaxiaofu
44% · 5 games
TuskCatYou
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 55%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3