EPIC League Season 3 Division 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HellRaisersloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Ursaoften banned
Skiter · 4 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Skiter · 4 games
Crystal Maiden
Fata · 3 games
Dark Seeroften banned
33 · 3 games
Grimstroke
Fata · 3 games
Puckoften banned
Fata · 3 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Nine · 3 games
Abaddon
33 · 2 games
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
397 picks · 889 bans
Void Spirit
369 picks · 536 bans
Mars
320 picks · 579 bans
Death Prophet
285 picks · 525 bans
Earth Spirit
285 picks · 243 bans
Rubick
255 picks · 162 bans
Wraith King
239 picks · 391 bans
Keeper of the Light
238 picks · 521 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 59%
Hero pool strength51% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:5
Tundra Esports 38%HellRaisers 62%
The model gave 62% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 20:13.
Game 2prediction missed33:36
Tundra Esports 38%HellRaisers 62%
The model gave 62% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 50:55.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 62%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2