Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionQqwertywin 2:0
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
VP.Prodigyloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
qwerty
No games played over 6 months.
VP.Prodigy
Troll Warlordsignature
Noticed · 11 games
Undyingoften banned
dSa · 11 games
Rubick
forcemajor · 10 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Larl · 9 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
dSa · 7 games
Oraclesignature
dSa · 6 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Noticed · 5 games
Earth Spirit
forcemajor · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
397 picks · 888 bans
Void Spirit
369 picks · 534 bans
Mars
320 picks · 574 bans
Death Prophet
285 picks · 520 bans
Earth Spirit
285 picks · 243 bans
Rubick
255 picks · 161 bans
Wraith King
239 picks · 388 bans
Keeper of the Light
238 picks · 520 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 25%
Hero pool strength52% VP.Prodigy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% qwerty
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:25
qwerty 64%VP.Prodigy 36%
The model gave 64% on qwerty — the game was taken by qwerty in 34:57.
Game 2prediction correct26:19
qwerty 64%VP.Prodigy 36%
The model gave 64% on qwerty — the game was taken by qwerty in 46:13.
Model check result
Model favoriteqwerty · 64%
Series resultqwerty 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2