Moon Studio Spring Trophy · BO3
result vs prediction
Omega Esportswin 2:0series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Lilgunloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Omega Esports
Void Spiritoften banned
Mac · 10 games
Grimstrokesignature
cml · 7 games
Batrideroften banned
Mac · 6 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Mac · 6 games
Pangoliersignature
Bok · 6 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Mac · 5 games
Alchemistoften banned
Tino- · 4 games
Brewmaster
cml · 4 games
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
395 picks · 885 bans
Void Spirit
368 picks · 531 bans
Mars
320 picks · 573 bans
Death Prophet
285 picks · 515 bans
Earth Spirit
284 picks · 243 bans
Rubick
255 picks · 161 bans
Wraith King
239 picks · 388 bans
Keeper of the Light
238 picks · 520 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 48%
Hero pool strength54% Omega Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total51% Omega Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:33
Omega Esports 51%Lilgun 49%
The model gave 51% on Omega Esports — the game was taken by Omega Esports in 46:41.
Game 2prediction correct42:36
Omega Esports 51%Lilgun 49%
The model gave 51% on Omega Esports — the game was taken by Omega Esports in 55:11.
Model check result
Model favoriteOmega Esports · 51%
Series resultOmega Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2