Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionADAlmost Disbandedwin 2:0
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TTOPREDAloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Almost Disbanded
No games played over 6 months.
TOPREDA
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
395 picks · 885 bans
Void Spirit
368 picks · 531 bans
Mars
320 picks · 573 bans
Death Prophet
285 picks · 515 bans
Earth Spirit
284 picks · 243 bans
Rubick
255 picks · 161 bans
Wraith King
239 picks · 388 bans
Keeper of the Light
238 picks · 520 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% Almost Disbanded
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Almost Disbanded
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:21
Almost Disbanded 51%TOPREDA 49%
The model gave 51% on Almost Disbanded — the game was taken by Almost Disbanded in 24:47.
Game 2prediction correct43:17
Almost Disbanded 51%TOPREDA 49%
The model gave 51% on Almost Disbanded — the game was taken by Almost Disbanded in 30:05.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlmost Disbanded · 51%
Series resultAlmost Disbanded 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2