EPIC League Season 3 Division 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Uniqueloss 1:2series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 1:2
PuckChampwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Unique
No games played over 6 months.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
395 picks · 884 bans
Void Spirit
368 picks · 530 bans
Mars
320 picks · 573 bans
Death Prophet
285 picks · 512 bans
Earth Spirit
284 picks · 243 bans
Rubick
255 picks · 161 bans
Wraith King
239 picks · 387 bans
Keeper of the Light
238 picks · 520 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 68%
Hero pool strength50% Team Unique
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:9
Team Unique 26%PuckChamp 74%
The model gave 74% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 30:15.
Game 2prediction missed43:36
Team Unique 26%PuckChamp 74%
The model gave 74% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Team Unique in 54:16.
Game 3prediction correct3:13
Team Unique 26%PuckChamp 74%
The model gave 74% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 17:02.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 74%
Series resultPuckChamp 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3