FMWH Dota2 Championship Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:0series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Invictus Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aster
Pucksignature
White丶Album · 10 games
Gyrocoptersignature
LaNm · 9 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
LaNm · 8 games
Queen of Painsignature
White丶Album · 8 games
Abaddonsignature
LaNm · 7 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Monet · 7 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Monet · 7 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
White丶Album · 6 games
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
394 picks · 883 bans
Void Spirit
368 picks · 530 bans
Mars
318 picks · 573 bans
Death Prophet
284 picks · 512 bans
Earth Spirit
284 picks · 242 bans
Rubick
255 picks · 160 bans
Keeper of the Light
238 picks · 520 bans
Wraith King
238 picks · 387 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)74% vs 70%
Hero pool strength62% Team Aster
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total53% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:13
Team Aster 53%Invictus Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 40:18.
Game 2prediction correct24:10
Team Aster 53%Invictus Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 27:35.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 53%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2