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Moon Studio Spring Trophy · BO3
result vs prediction
Army Geniusesloss 1:2
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Crocodilewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Army Geniuses

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Lym- · 10 games
70%
Mirana
Mirana
Lym- · 6 games
50%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
db- · 6 games
17%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
MamangDaya · 5 games
40%
Mars
Marsoften banned
MamangDaya · 4 games
50%
Riki
Rikioften banned
db- · 4 games
50%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
MamangDaya · 4 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddon
woMy · 3 games
67%

Crocodile

Elder Titan
Elder Titan
QYQX · 3 games
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Sakata · 3 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sakata · 1 game
0%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
QYQX · 1 game
0%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Sakata · 1 game
0%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Sakata · 1 game
0%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
QYQX · 1 game
0%
Venomancer
Venomanceroften banned
Sakata · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
394 picks · 880 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
366 picks · 529 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
318 picks · 572 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
283 picks · 512 bans
56%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
282 picks · 242 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
254 picks · 160 bans
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
238 picks · 520 bans
54%
Wraith King
Wraith King
238 picks · 387 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% Crocodile
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Crocodile
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:13
Army Geniuses 44%Crocodile 56%
The model gave 56% on Crocodile — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 25:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
Juggernautdb-
68% · 15 games50% · 90 games
Death ProphetSakata
Death Prophet
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMamangDaya
50% · 41 game60% · 21 game
AbaddonQYQX
Abaddon
Timbersaw
TimbersawwoMy
39% · 21 game
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritLym-
39% · 34 games
Game 2prediction correct2:21
Army Geniuses 46%Crocodile 54%
The model gave 54% on Crocodile — the game was taken by Crocodile in 16:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Io
Iodb-
64% · 11 games41% · 17 games
Queen of PainSakata
Queen of Pain
Windranger
WindrangerMamangDaya
little data44% · 29 games
Elder TitanQYQX
Elder Titan
Timbersaw
TimbersawwoMy
48% · 13 games
Rubick
RubickLym-
59% · 22 games
Game 3prediction correct20:40
Army Geniuses 42%Crocodile 58%
The model gave 58% on Crocodile — the game was taken by Crocodile in 39:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
Weaverdb-
61% · 15 games54% · 20 games
Dragon KnightSakata
Dragon Knight
Pugna
PugnawoMy
little data53% · 66 games
PhoenixQYQX
Phoenix
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMamangDaya
45% · 30 games
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritLym-
40% · 41 game
Model check result
Model favoriteCrocodile · 61%
Series resultCrocodile 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3