FMWH Dota2 Championship Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Elephantwin 2:0series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Aster.Ariesloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Elephant
No games played over 6 months.
Aster.Aries
Abaddon
Fantasy · 7 games
Death Prophetoften banned
生死 · 7 games
Grimstrokesignature
Fantasy · 7 games
Marsoften banned
生死 · 7 games
Void Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 6 games
Morphlingoften banned
Ulu · 5 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Ulu · 4 games
Puckoften banned
phoenix · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
393 picks · 879 bans
Void Spirit
366 picks · 528 bans
Mars
318 picks · 572 bans
Death Prophet
283 picks · 511 bans
Earth Spirit
282 picks · 242 bans
Rubick
254 picks · 160 bans
Keeper of the Light
238 picks · 520 bans
Wraith King
237 picks · 387 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 53%
Hero pool strength52% Elephant
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Elephant
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:13
Elephant 52%Aster.Aries 48%
The model gave 52% on Elephant — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 25:35.
Game 2prediction missed27:9
Elephant 52%Aster.Aries 48%
The model gave 52% on Elephant — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 29:56.
Model check result
Model favoriteElephant · 52%
Series resultElephant 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2