Moon Studio Spring Trophy · BO3
result vs prediction
Aster.Ariesloss 0:2series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Dragonwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aster.Aries
Abaddon
Fantasy · 7 games
Death Prophetoften banned
生死 · 7 games
Grimstrokesignature
Fantasy · 7 games
Marsoften banned
生死 · 7 games
Void Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 6 games
Morphlingoften banned
Ulu · 5 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Ulu · 4 games
Puckoften banned
phoenix · 4 games
Dragon
Nyx Assassinoften banned
斗圣 · 2 games
Pangolieroften banned
ghost · 2 games
Tusk
斗圣 · 2 games
Axe
ghost · 1 game
Elder Titan
斗圣 · 1 game
Grimstroke
斗圣 · 1 game
Legion Commanderoften banned
ghost · 1 game
Oracleoften banned
斗圣 · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
393 picks · 879 bans
Void Spirit
366 picks · 528 bans
Mars
318 picks · 572 bans
Death Prophet
283 picks · 511 bans
Earth Spirit
282 picks · 242 bans
Rubick
254 picks · 160 bans
Keeper of the Light
238 picks · 520 bans
Wraith King
237 picks · 387 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 44%
Hero pool strength53% Aster.Aries
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Aster.Aries
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteAster.Aries · 69%
Series resultDragon 0:2
Series predictionmissed