?
arrow_backBack to match
EPIC League Season 3 Division 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 7 games
29%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
Collapse · 6 games
83%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Yatoro · 6 games
67%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Miposhka · 6 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 5 games
40%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Miposhka · 4 games
25%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Miposhka · 4 games
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
so bad · 4 games
50%

Tundra Esports

Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Skiter · 4 games
50%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Skiter · 4 games
75%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Fata · 3 games
33%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
33 · 3 games
33%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Fata · 3 games
100%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Fata · 3 games
0%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Nine · 3 games
67%
Abaddon
Abaddon
33 · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
393 picks · 878 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
366 picks · 527 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
318 picks · 572 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
283 picks · 509 bans
56%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
282 picks · 240 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
254 picks · 160 bans
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
238 picks · 518 bans
54%
Wraith King
Wraith King
237 picks · 386 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:35
Team Spirit 62%Tundra Esports 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 37:13.
Game 2prediction correct31:21
Team Spirit 62%Tundra Esports 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 46:47.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 62%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2