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EPIC League Season 3 Division 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
EXTREMUMwin 1:0
series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Hellbear Smashersloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

EXTREMUM

Mars
Marsoften banned
Shachlo · 14 games
57%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
mellojul · 13 games
38%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
G · 12 games
83%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 11 games
55%
Puck
Pucksignature
mellojul · 9 games
78%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Chuvash · 8 games
63%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
G · 8 games
25%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Nefrit · 7 games
57%

Hellbear Smashers

Invoker
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 17 games
82%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ace · 15 games
67%
Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 14 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
MISERY · 13 games
77%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Ace · 13 games
69%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Stormstormer · 12 games
75%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Gilgir · 11 games
82%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Gilgir · 11 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
393 picks · 868 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
364 picks · 523 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
318 picks · 568 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
283 picks · 502 bans
56%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
280 picks · 239 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
254 picks · 160 bans
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
238 picks · 518 bans
54%
Wraith King
Wraith King
237 picks · 384 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 70%
Hero pool strength61% Hellbear Smashers
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total82% Hellbear Smashers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
EXTREMUM 18%Hellbear Smashers 82%
The model gave 82% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by EXTREMUM.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellbear Smashers · 82%
Series resultEXTREMUM 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1