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Moon Studio Spring Trophy · BO3
result vs prediction
Omega Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Aster.Arieswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Omega Esports

Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Mac · 9 games
56%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Mac · 6 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
cml · 6 games
83%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Bok · 6 games
67%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Mac · 5 games
80%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Tino- · 4 games
25%
Brewmaster
Brewmaster
cml · 4 games
0%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Mac · 4 games
50%

Aster.Aries

Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
生死 · 7 games
43%
Mars
Marsoften banned
生死 · 7 games
29%
Abaddon
Abaddon
Fantasy · 5 games
20%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 5 games
40%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Fantasy · 4 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Ulu · 4 games
25%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
生死 · 4 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ulu · 3 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
388 picks · 863 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
362 picks · 518 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
314 picks · 565 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
282 picks · 499 bans
56%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
278 picks · 239 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
253 picks · 158 bans
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
238 picks · 518 bans
54%
Wraith King
Wraith King
236 picks · 381 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% Omega Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Omega Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:36
Omega Esports 57%Aster.Aries 43%
The model gave 57% on Omega Esports — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 44:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinTino-
48% · 34 games55% · 42 games
JuggernautUlu
Juggernaut
Windranger
WindrangerMac
46% · 7 games60% · 15 games
Shadow Fiendphoenix
Shadow Fiend
Mars
MarsSam_H
57% · 73 games55% · 59 games
Pangolier生死
Pangolier
Death Prophet
Death Prophetcml
46% · 63 games35% · 61 game
GrimstrokeFantasy
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction correct33:16
Omega Esports 60%Aster.Aries 40%
The model gave 60% on Omega Esports — the game was taken by Omega Esports in 43:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingTino-
53% · 83 games53% · 46 games
MorphlingUlu
Morphling
Rubick
RubickMac
49% · 77 games51% · 116 games
Puckphoenix
Puck
Underlord
UnderlordSam_H
48% · 20 games51% · 60 games
Pangolier生死
Pangolier
Grimstroke
Grimstrokecml
41% · 66 games55% · 24 games
AbaddonFantasy
Abaddon
Game 3prediction missed10:38
Omega Esports 59%Aster.Aries 41%
The model gave 59% on Omega Esports — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 30:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMac
55% · 118 games44% · 5 games
LifestealerUlu
Lifestealer
Huskar
HuskarTino-
little data47% · 129 games
Puckphoenix
Puck
Underlord
UnderlordSam_H
55% · 23 games26% · 10 games
Night Stalker生死
Night Stalker
Oracle
Oraclecml
60% · 64 games43% · 61 game
GrimstrokeFantasy
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteOmega Esports · 63%
Series resultAster.Aries 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3