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FMWH Dota2 Championship Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterloss 1:2
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 1:2
LGD Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Aster

Puck
Pucksignature
White丶Album · 10 games
70%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
LaNm · 8 games
88%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Monet · 7 games
71%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Monet · 7 games
86%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
White丶Album · 7 games
71%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
LaNm · 6 games
83%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Monet · 6 games
83%
Io
Iooften banned
BoBoKa · 5 games
80%

LGD Gaming

Puck
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 9 games
89%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 8 games
63%
Tusk
Tusksignature
XinQ · 8 games
88%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
y` · 7 games
57%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 7 games
71%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Faith_bian · 6 games
67%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 6 games
50%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
y` · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
388 picks · 863 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
362 picks · 518 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
314 picks · 565 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
282 picks · 499 bans
56%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
278 picks · 239 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
253 picks · 158 bans
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
238 picks · 518 bans
54%
Wraith King
Wraith King
236 picks · 381 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)78% vs 63%
Hero pool strength53% Team Aster
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total64% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:28
Team Aster 59%LGD Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Aster — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 21:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinMonet
61% · 39 games46% · 53 games
MorphlingAme
Morphling
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightWhite丶Album
63% · 71 game50% · 34 games
LycanFaith_bian
Lycan
Mars
MarsXxs
50% · 103 games48% · 135 games
PuckNothingToSay
Puck
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritBoBoKa
51% · 91 game32% · 62 games
GrimstrokeXinQ
Grimstroke
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterLaNm
58% · 15 games56% · 35 games
Clockwerky`
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct36:25
Team Aster 58%LGD Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 44:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingMonet
57% · 58 games36% · 41 game
JuggernautAme
Juggernaut
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainWhite丶Album
63% · 35 games52% · 101 game
Void SpiritNothingToSay
Void Spirit
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerXxs
55% · 33 games52% · 15 games
ViperFaith_bian
Viper
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritBoBoKa
52% · 82 games46% · 39 games
Storm SpiritXinQ
Storm Spirit
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterLaNm
46% · 18 games38% · 30 games
Clockwerky`
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction missed9:25
Team Aster 57%LGD Gaming 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Aster — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 23:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordMonet
49% · 68 games45% · 25 games
Nature's ProphetAme
Nature's Prophet
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerWhite丶Album
40% · 43 games54% · 105 games
PuckNothingToSay
Puck
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightXxs
54% · 70 games50% · 58 games
MarsFaith_bian
Mars
Luna
LunaBoBoKa
44% · 5 games54% · 25 games
Storm SpiritXinQ
Storm Spirit
Abaddon
AbaddonLaNm
51% · 41 game56% · 14 games
Gyrocoptery`
Gyrocopter
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 64%
Series resultLGD Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3