?
arrow_backBack to match
Moon Studio Spring Trophy · BO3
result vs prediction
Lilgunloss 1:2
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Army Geniuseswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Lilgun

No games played over 6 months.

Army Geniuses

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Lym- · 10 games
70%
Mirana
Mirana
Lym- · 6 games
50%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
db- · 6 games
17%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
MamangDaya · 5 games
40%
Riki
Rikioften banned
db- · 4 games
50%
Io
Iooften banned
db- · 3 games
33%
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderoften banned
woMy · 3 games
0%
Mars
Marsoften banned
MamangDaya · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
387 picks · 857 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
362 picks · 515 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
313 picks · 563 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
280 picks · 493 bans
56%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
277 picks · 238 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
253 picks · 156 bans
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
238 picks · 516 bans
54%
Wraith King
Wraith King
236 picks · 378 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 32%
Hero pool strength51% Lilgun
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total68% Lilgun
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:20
Lilgun 68%Army Geniuses 32%
The model gave 68% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 30:26.
Game 2prediction missed18:9
Lilgun 68%Army Geniuses 32%
The model gave 68% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 17:01.
Game 3prediction missed33:20
Lilgun 68%Army Geniuses 32%
The model gave 68% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 35:10.
Model check result
Model favoriteLilgun · 68%
Series resultArmy Geniuses 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3