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EPIC League Season 3 Division 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:1
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Winstrike Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Skiter · 4 games
50%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Skiter · 4 games
75%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Fata · 3 games
33%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
33 · 3 games
33%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Fata · 3 games
100%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Fata · 3 games
0%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Nine · 3 games
67%
Abaddon
Abaddon
33 · 2 games
50%

Winstrike Team

Puck
Puckoften banned
re1bl · 12 games
58%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
yamich · 11 games
64%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
yamich · 11 games
73%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
dyrachyo · 9 games
67%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
re1bl · 9 games
56%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
dyrachyo · 9 games
56%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Panto · 8 games
38%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Panto · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
382 picks · 851 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
359 picks · 510 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
310 picks · 555 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
277 picks · 486 bans
56%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
275 picks · 236 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
253 picks · 154 bans
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
238 picks · 515 bans
54%
Wraith King
Wraith King
236 picks · 373 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 63%
Hero pool strength56% Winstrike Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Winstrike Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:35
Tundra Esports 32%Winstrike Team 68%
The model gave 68% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 26:59.
Game 2prediction missed36:19
Tundra Esports 32%Winstrike Team 68%
The model gave 68% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 36:52.
Game 3prediction missed31:12
Tundra Esports 32%Winstrike Team 68%
The model gave 68% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 30:24.
Model check result
Model favoriteWinstrike Team · 68%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3