Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs predictionNNoImproveloss 0:1
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Qqwertywin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
NoImprove
No games played over 6 months.
qwerty
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
382 picks · 851 bans
Void Spirit
359 picks · 510 bans
Mars
310 picks · 555 bans
Death Prophet
277 picks · 486 bans
Earth Spirit
275 picks · 236 bans
Rubick
253 picks · 154 bans
Keeper of the Light
238 picks · 515 bans
Wraith King
236 picks · 373 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% NoImprove
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% NoImprove
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteNoImprove · 53%
Series resultqwerty 0:1
Series predictionmissed