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EPIC League Season 3 Division 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
High Coast Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 7 games
29%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
Collapse · 6 games
83%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Yatoro · 6 games
67%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Miposhka · 6 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 5 games
40%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Miposhka · 4 games
25%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Miposhka · 4 games
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
so bad · 4 games
50%

High Coast Esports

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Xibbe · 7 games
57%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Era · 6 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Chessie · 5 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Charlie · 4 games
50%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
Charlie · 4 games
100%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Xibbe · 4 games
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Era · 4 games
25%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Era · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
382 picks · 849 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
359 picks · 509 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
310 picks · 554 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
277 picks · 484 bans
56%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
275 picks · 234 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
253 picks · 154 bans
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
238 picks · 515 bans
54%
Wraith King
Wraith King
236 picks · 372 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 38%
Hero pool strength51% High Coast Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:30
Team Spirit 71%High Coast Esports 29%
The model gave 71% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 50:41.
Game 2prediction correct24:11
Team Spirit 71%High Coast Esports 29%
The model gave 71% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 35:53.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 71%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2