Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs predictionADAlmost Disbandedwin 1:0
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:0
ARCREDloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Almost Disbanded
No games played over 6 months.
ARCRED
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
382 picks · 849 bans
Void Spirit
359 picks · 509 bans
Mars
310 picks · 554 bans
Death Prophet
277 picks · 484 bans
Earth Spirit
275 picks · 234 bans
Rubick
253 picks · 154 bans
Keeper of the Light
238 picks · 515 bans
Wraith King
236 picks · 372 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Almost Disbanded
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Almost Disbanded
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlmost Disbanded · 52%
Series resultAlmost Disbanded 1:0
Series predictioncorrect