Moon Studio Spring Trophy · BO3
result vs prediction
Team SMGloss 0:2series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Lilgunwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team SMG
Earth Spirit
Ohaiyo · 5 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Mushi · 4 games
Mirana
AhFu · 4 games
Brewmaster
ninjaboogie · 3 games
Linaoften banned
AhFu · 3 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Mushi · 3 games
Chaos Knight
Mushi · 2 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
vtFαded · 2 games
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
382 picks · 844 bans
Void Spirit
359 picks · 507 bans
Mars
309 picks · 552 bans
Death Prophet
277 picks · 481 bans
Earth Spirit
274 picks · 234 bans
Rubick
253 picks · 154 bans
Keeper of the Light
238 picks · 515 bans
Wraith King
236 picks · 370 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)18% vs 44%
Hero pool strength59% Lilgun
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Lilgun
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteLilgun · 80%
Series resultLilgun 0:2
Series predictioncorrect