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FMWH Dota2 Championship Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:1
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Vici Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Aster

Puck
Pucksignature
White丶Album · 9 games
67%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
LaNm · 8 games
88%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Monet · 7 games
86%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
LaNm · 6 games
83%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
White丶Album · 6 games
67%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Monet · 6 games
83%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
BoBoKa · 5 games
100%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
White丶Album · 4 games
75%

Vici Gaming

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Pyw · 7 games
86%
Mars
Marssignature
ELeVeN · 6 games
100%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
ELeVeN · 6 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
ELeVeN · 4 games
50%
Brewmaster
Brewmaster
Dy · 4 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Ori · 4 games
75%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Dy · 4 games
75%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Ori · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
381 picks · 842 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
358 picks · 507 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
309 picks · 549 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
276 picks · 479 bans
56%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
272 picks · 234 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
252 picks · 154 bans
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
238 picks · 515 bans
54%
Wraith King
Wraith King
236 picks · 370 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 64%
Hero pool strength56% Team Aster
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total58% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:10
Team Aster 53%Vici Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 32:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeMonet
53% · 24 games45% · 35 games
Juggernautpoyoyo
Juggernaut
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritWhite丶Album
48% · 36 games56% · 13 games
Dragon KnightOri
Dragon Knight
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerXxs
53% · 20 games34% · 14 games
WindrangerELeVeN
Windranger
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritBoBoKa
51% · 78 games55% · 47 games
TuskPyw
Tusk
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterLaNm
57% · 10 games49% · 59 games
OracleDy
Oracle
Game 2prediction missed18:36
Team Aster 56%Vici Gaming 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 31:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordMonet
51% · 66 games49% · 37 games
Weaverpoyoyo
Weaver
Magnus
MagnusWhite丶Album
little data67% · 16 games
RazorELeVeN
Razor
Death Prophet
Death ProphetXxs
56% · 101 game48% · 100 games
Void SpiritOri
Void Spirit
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritBoBoKa
54% · 87 games39% · 65 games
TuskPyw
Tusk
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterLaNm
54% · 23 games43% · 59 games
GrimstrokeDy
Grimstroke
Game 3prediction correct20:6
Team Aster 53%Vici Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 23:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterMonet
57% · 13 games55% · 17 games
Templar AssassinOri
Templar Assassin
Puck
PuckWhite丶Album
47% · 133 games47% · 54 games
Monkey Kingpoyoyo
Monkey King
Windranger
WindrangerXxs
56% · 15 games57% · 48 games
Dragon KnightELeVeN
Dragon Knight
Io
IoBoBoKa
46% · 14 games48% · 49 games
RubickPyw
Rubick
Luna
LunaLaNm
29% · 3 games57% · 10 games
AbaddonDy
Abaddon
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 58%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3