Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionAAstronautswin 2:1
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Meta4Proloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Astronauts
No games played over 6 months.
Meta4Pro
Pangolieroften banned
ZipZaper · 3 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Lowskill · 2 games
Tidehunteroften banned
ZipZaper · 2 games
Alchemistoften banned
Lowskill · 1 game
Bounty Hunter
ZipZaper · 1 game
Bristlebackoften banned
ZipZaper · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
Wuiter · 1 game
Earthshaker
Niqua · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
381 picks · 836 bans
Void Spirit
358 picks · 505 bans
Mars
309 picks · 548 bans
Death Prophet
276 picks · 472 bans
Earth Spirit
272 picks · 232 bans
Rubick
251 picks · 154 bans
Keeper of the Light
238 picks · 512 bans
Wraith King
235 picks · 366 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 38%
Hero pool strength55% Meta4Pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Astronauts
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:9
Astronauts 60%Meta4Pro 40%
The model gave 60% on Astronauts — the game was taken by Astronauts in 34:36.
Game 2prediction missed54:58
Astronauts 60%Meta4Pro 40%
The model gave 60% on Astronauts — the game was taken by Meta4Pro in 51:15.
Game 3prediction correct29:11
Astronauts 60%Meta4Pro 40%
The model gave 60% on Astronauts — the game was taken by Astronauts in 24:51.
Model check result
Model favoriteAstronauts · 60%
Series resultAstronauts 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3