Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionPEplan-B esportsloss 0:2
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Into The Breachwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
plan-B esports
No games played over 6 months.
Into The Breach
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
381 picks · 836 bans
Void Spirit
358 picks · 505 bans
Mars
309 picks · 548 bans
Death Prophet
276 picks · 472 bans
Earth Spirit
272 picks · 232 bans
Rubick
251 picks · 154 bans
Keeper of the Light
238 picks · 512 bans
Wraith King
235 picks · 366 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 56%
Hero pool strength50% plan-B esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Into The Breach
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:38
plan-B esports 49%Into The Breach 51%
The model gave 51% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 28:32.
Game 2prediction correct23:36
plan-B esports 49%Into The Breach 51%
The model gave 51% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 40:25.
Model check result
Model favoriteInto The Breach · 51%
Series resultInto The Breach 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2