Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionAAstronautswin 2:0
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
WCWHO CARESloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Astronauts
No games played over 6 months.
WHO CARES
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
381 picks · 820 bans
Void Spirit
358 picks · 496 bans
Mars
309 picks · 542 bans
Death Prophet
275 picks · 458 bans
Earth Spirit
272 picks · 231 bans
Rubick
251 picks · 151 bans
Keeper of the Light
238 picks · 505 bans
Wraith King
235 picks · 360 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Astronauts
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Astronauts
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:31
Astronauts 50%WHO CARES 50%
The model gave 50% on Astronauts — the game was taken by Astronauts in 30:19.
Game 2prediction correct42:7
Astronauts 50%WHO CARES 50%
The model gave 50% on Astronauts — the game was taken by Astronauts in 24:38.
Model check result
Model favoriteAstronauts · 50%
Series resultAstronauts 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2