Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionGGoldbaerwin 2:1
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:1
CJCarl Johnsonloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Goldbaer
No games played over 6 months.
Carl Johnson
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
381 picks · 820 bans
Void Spirit
358 picks · 496 bans
Mars
309 picks · 542 bans
Death Prophet
275 picks · 458 bans
Earth Spirit
272 picks · 231 bans
Rubick
251 picks · 151 bans
Keeper of the Light
238 picks · 505 bans
Wraith King
235 picks · 360 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% Goldbaer
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Goldbaer
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:8
Goldbaer 53%Carl Johnson 47%
The model gave 53% on Goldbaer — the game was taken by Carl Johnson in 24:46.
Game 2prediction correct58:28
Goldbaer 53%Carl Johnson 47%
The model gave 53% on Goldbaer — the game was taken by Goldbaer in 44:37.
Game 3prediction correct42:13
Goldbaer 53%Carl Johnson 47%
The model gave 53% on Goldbaer — the game was taken by Goldbaer in 32:22.
Model check result
Model favoriteGoldbaer · 53%
Series resultGoldbaer 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3