Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionFSFlex skillloss 0:2
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Into The Breachwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Flex skill
No games played over 6 months.
Into The Breach
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
381 picks · 820 bans
Void Spirit
358 picks · 496 bans
Mars
309 picks · 542 bans
Death Prophet
275 picks · 458 bans
Earth Spirit
272 picks · 231 bans
Rubick
251 picks · 151 bans
Keeper of the Light
238 picks · 505 bans
Wraith King
235 picks · 360 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Flex skill
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Into The Breach
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:47
Flex skill 44%Into The Breach 56%
The model gave 56% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 40:59.
Game 2prediction correct41:22
Flex skill 44%Into The Breach 56%
The model gave 56% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 42:09.
Model check result
Model favoriteInto The Breach · 56%
Series resultInto The Breach 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2