Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionSDSyrian Dreamloss 0:2
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Ghost frogswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Syrian Dream
No games played over 6 months.
Ghost frogs
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
381 picks · 820 bans
Void Spirit
358 picks · 496 bans
Mars
309 picks · 542 bans
Death Prophet
275 picks · 458 bans
Earth Spirit
272 picks · 231 bans
Rubick
251 picks · 151 bans
Keeper of the Light
238 picks · 505 bans
Wraith King
235 picks · 360 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Syrian Dream
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Ghost frogs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:34
Syrian Dream 45%Ghost frogs 55%
The model gave 55% on Ghost frogs — the game was taken by Ghost frogs in 25:45.
Game 2prediction correct33:11
Syrian Dream 45%Ghost frogs 55%
The model gave 55% on Ghost frogs — the game was taken by Ghost frogs in 19:27.
Model check result
Model favoriteGhost frogs · 55%
Series resultGhost frogs 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2