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EPIC League Season 3 Division 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Dota Teamloss 1:2
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Bramewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Dota Team

No games played over 6 months.

Brame

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
CTOMAHEH1 · 14 games
43%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
SsaSpartan · 12 games
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 10 games
70%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
SkyLark · 9 games
67%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
SsaSpartan · 9 games
44%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 8 games
75%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
W1sh- · 8 games
50%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Focus · 8 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
381 picks · 819 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
358 picks · 495 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
309 picks · 542 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
275 picks · 457 bans
56%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
272 picks · 231 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
251 picks · 151 bans
51%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
238 picks · 505 bans
54%
Wraith King
Wraith King
235 picks · 360 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 58%
Hero pool strength51% Brame
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Brame
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:12
Dota Team 35%Brame 65%
The model gave 65% on Brame — the game was taken by Dota Team in 37:11.
Game 2prediction correct33:21
Dota Team 35%Brame 65%
The model gave 65% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame in 40:50.
Game 3prediction correct29:28
Dota Team 35%Brame 65%
The model gave 65% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame in 51:00.
Model check result
Model favoriteBrame · 65%
Series resultBrame 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3