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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
V-Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:1
NoUndyingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

V-Gaming

Mars
Marsoften banned
laise · 4 games
75%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
ArrOw · 3 games
67%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Kiritych · 2 games
100%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
hAze · 2 games
100%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
hAze · 2 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
hAze · 1 game
0%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
TA2000 · 1 game
100%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
ArrOw · 1 game
100%

NoUndying

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
LastHero- · 9 games
44%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
velheor · 7 games
29%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
BLACKARXANGEL · 6 games
83%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Kodos · 6 games
17%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Kodos · 6 games
50%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
BLACKARXANGEL · 6 games
17%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
BLACKARXANGEL · 4 games
0%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
velheor · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
380 picks · 817 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
357 picks · 492 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
307 picks · 541 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
274 picks · 452 bans
56%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
272 picks · 231 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
249 picks · 151 bans
51%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
237 picks · 504 bans
54%
Wraith King
Wraith King
235 picks · 359 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 44%
Hero pool strength60% V-Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% NoUndying
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:3
V-Gaming 50%NoUndying 50%
The model gave 50% on NoUndying — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 14:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
BroodmotherDodren
little data56% · 31 game
TidehunterSedoy
Tidehunter
Night Stalker
Night StalkerTA2000
64% · 9 games43% · 32 games
Juggernautbaraban
Juggernaut
Void Spirit
Void Spiritlaise
44% · 80 games60% · 14 games
InvokerChira JUNIOR
Invoker
Lion
LionArrOw
45% · 23 games56% · 35 games
Shadow Shamangoddam
Shadow Shaman
little data
LichBLACKARXANGEL
Lich
Game 2prediction missed30:32
V-Gaming 51%NoUndying 49%
The model gave 51% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by NoUndying in 39:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautTA2000
61% · 58 games52% · 17 games
Alchemistbaraban
Alchemist
Kunkka
KunkkaDodren
65% · 28 games47% · 92 games
PuckChira JUNIOR
Puck
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekerlaise
38% · 55 games55% · 35 games
TidehunterSedoy
Tidehunter
Rubick
RubickArrOw
39% · 94 games46% · 24 games
Liongoddam
Lion
57% · 67 games
Death ProphetBLACKARXANGEL
Death Prophet
Game 3prediction missed40:12
V-Gaming 50%NoUndying 50%
The model gave 50% on NoUndying — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 34:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistTA2000
48% · 25 games55% · 31 game
Ursabaraban
Ursa
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendDodren
little data56% · 44 games
BeastmasterSedoy
Beastmaster
Mars
Marslaise
54% · 75 games53% · 7 games
RazorChira JUNIOR
Razor
Rubick
RubickArrOw
40% · 47 games48% · 27 games
Liongoddam
Lion
49% · 38 games
TidehunterBLACKARXANGEL
Tidehunter
Model check result
Model favoriteNoUndying · 51%
Series resultV-Gaming 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3