Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionMmayloss 1:2
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
may
No games played over 6 months.
Nemiga Gaming
Marsoften banned
Ainkrad · 11 games
Ursaoften banned
tatakae · 6 games
Jakiro
Lodine · 4 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
tatakae · 4 games
Oracleoften banned
Lodine · 4 games
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 4 games
Tusk
Lodine · 4 games
Witch Doctor
Lodine · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
380 picks · 814 bans
Void Spirit
357 picks · 488 bans
Mars
306 picks · 538 bans
Death Prophet
274 picks · 443 bans
Earth Spirit
272 picks · 230 bans
Rubick
249 picks · 148 bans
Keeper of the Light
237 picks · 500 bans
Wraith King
235 picks · 356 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 47%
Hero pool strength51% may
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed42:29
may 49%Nemiga Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by may in 48:25.
Game 2prediction correct38:22
may 49%Nemiga Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 41:47.
Game 3prediction correct36:23
may 49%Nemiga Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 38:53.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 51%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3