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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Cascade Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:2
WhyTrywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Cascade Esports

Rubick
Rubick
jAMES · 9 games
44%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Shisui · 6 games
50%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
MieRo · 4 games
25%
Io
Iooften banned
Zitraks · 4 games
25%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Kidaro · 4 games
0%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Shisui · 4 games
0%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Zitraks · 3 games
33%
Mirana
Mirana
jAMES · 3 games
67%

WhyTry

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
380 picks · 814 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
357 picks · 488 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
306 picks · 538 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
274 picks · 443 bans
56%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
272 picks · 230 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
249 picks · 148 bans
51%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
237 picks · 500 bans
54%
Wraith King
Wraith King
235 picks · 356 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 60%
Hero pool strength55% WhyTry
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% WhyTry
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:27
Cascade Esports 46%WhyTry 54%
The model gave 54% on WhyTry — the game was taken by Cascade Esports in 33:50.
Game 2prediction correct34:12
Cascade Esports 46%WhyTry 54%
The model gave 54% on WhyTry — the game was taken by WhyTry in 24:51.
Game 3prediction correct19:48
Cascade Esports 46%WhyTry 54%
The model gave 54% on WhyTry — the game was taken by WhyTry in 30:36.
Model check result
Model favoriteWhyTry · 54%
Series resultWhyTry 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3