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PGL Wallachia Season 7. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:0
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
hAze clanloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Tiny
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 30 games
77%
Warlock
Warlock
kasane · 30 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Squad1x · 29 games
59%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Squad1x · 28 games
64%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 26 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 26 games
69%
Tusk
Tusk
swedenstrong · 22 games
55%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
SSS · 20 games
65%

hAze clan

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
533 picks · 867 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
511 picks · 381 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
473 picks · 633 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
456 picks · 590 bans
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
397 picks · 820 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
353 picks · 576 bans
60%
Mars
Mars
345 picks · 480 bans
47%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
343 picks · 567 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 57%
Hero pool strength55% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:8
1w Team 66%hAze clan 34%
The model gave 66% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 28:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMunkushi~
49% · 596 games48% · 498 games
GyrocopterShigetsu
Gyrocopter
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSquad1x
48% · 432 games53% · 326 games
SlardarMalik
Slardar
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerSSS
54% · 458 games55% · 369 games
BatriderhAze
Batrider
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageRein
44% · 188 games49% · 664 games
JakiroSoNNeikO
Jakiro
Tusk
Tuskswedenstrong
50% · 564 games50% · 381 game
Hoodwinknot me
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct35:27
1w Team 68%hAze clan 32%
The model gave 68% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 46:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerMunkushi~
53% · 223 games52% · 105 games
JuggernautShigetsu
Juggernaut
Timbersaw
TimbersawSSS
57% · 213 games45% · 463 games
Dragon KnighthAze
Dragon Knight
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSquad1x
52% · 403 games45% · 341 game
MarsMalik
Mars
Tiny
Tinyswedenstrong
53% · 388 games46% · 545 games
Tusknot me
Tusk
Disruptor
DisruptorRein
48% · 368 games50% · 141 game
DazzleSoNNeikO
Dazzle
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 79%
Series result1w Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2