Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Китай 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterloss 0:2series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Invictus Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aster
Pucksignature
White丶Album · 9 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
LaNm · 8 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Monet · 7 games
Abaddonsignature
LaNm · 6 games
Phoenixoften banned
BoBoKa · 5 games
Queen of Painoften banned
White丶Album · 5 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Monet · 5 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
White丶Album · 4 games
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
380 picks · 812 bans
Void Spirit
356 picks · 488 bans
Mars
305 picks · 537 bans
Death Prophet
273 picks · 442 bans
Earth Spirit
272 picks · 230 bans
Rubick
249 picks · 148 bans
Keeper of the Light
237 picks · 500 bans
Wraith King
234 picks · 356 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)80% vs 67%
Hero pool strength65% Team Aster
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total65% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:31
Team Aster 65%Invictus Gaming 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Invictus Gaming in 47:21.
Game 2prediction missed10:22
Team Aster 65%Invictus Gaming 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Invictus Gaming in 32:59.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 65%
Series resultInvictus Gaming 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2