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PGL Wallachia Season 7. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0
series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 2:0
NoLogoJustMMRloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Antares · 28 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Abed · 20 games
55%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Fly · 20 games
45%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 19 games
58%
Puck
Pucksignature
Abed · 18 games
72%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Fly · 18 games
61%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Daxak · 15 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Abed · 15 games
40%

NoLogoJustMMR

Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
Flash · 4 games
25%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Jeezy · 4 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
G.T.I · 4 games
25%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
legacy · 4 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Jeezy · 3 games
0%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
legacy · 3 games
33%
Warlock
Warlock
Flash · 3 games
33%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
piro · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
533 picks · 867 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
511 picks · 381 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
473 picks · 633 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
456 picks · 590 bans
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
397 picks · 820 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
353 picks · 576 bans
60%
Mars
Mars
345 picks · 480 bans
47%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
343 picks · 567 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 43%
Hero pool strength57% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total91% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:15
Virtus.pro 77%NoLogoJustMMR 23%
The model gave 77% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 29:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Omniknight
OmniknightTimado
38% · 36 games51% · 149 games
Medusalegacy
Medusa
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerSabeRLight-
53% · 285 games51% · 205 games
Dark SeerLurker
Dark Seer
Huskar
HuskarSerenada
50% · 80 games55% · 349 games
Ember SpiritNyx
Ember Spirit
Jakiro
JakiroFly
47% · 436 games44% · 386 games
TinyAtoufix
Tiny
Ringmaster
RingmasterHellscream
53% · 348 games54% · 96 games
UndyingFlash
Undying
Game 2prediction correct35:21
Virtus.pro 78%NoLogoJustMMR 22%
The model gave 78% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 32:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordTimado
48% · 131 game51% · 80 games
Juggernautlegacy
Juggernaut
Underlord
UnderlordSabeRLight-
48% · 161 game48% · 102 games
Void SpiritNyx
Void Spirit
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSerenada
55% · 392 games52% · 140 games
Dark SeerLurker
Dark Seer
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageHellscream
52% · 156 games50% · 360 games
TuskAtoufix
Tusk
Phoenix
PhoenixFly
46% · 182 games51% · 340 games
JakiroFlash
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 91%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2