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EPIC League Season 3. Групповой этап · BO3
result vs prediction
Bramewin 2:1
series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Hellbear Smashersloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Brame

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
CTOMAHEH1 · 14 games
43%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
SsaSpartan · 12 games
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 10 games
70%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
SkyLark · 9 games
67%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
SsaSpartan · 9 games
44%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 8 games
75%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
W1sh- · 8 games
50%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Focus · 8 games
38%

Hellbear Smashers

Invoker
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 17 games
82%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ace · 15 games
67%
Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 14 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
MISERY · 13 games
77%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Ace · 13 games
69%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Stormstormer · 12 games
75%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Gilgir · 11 games
82%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Gilgir · 11 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
380 picks · 805 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
354 picks · 482 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
303 picks · 533 bans
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
271 picks · 229 bans
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
269 picks · 437 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
249 picks · 148 bans
51%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
236 picks · 497 bans
54%
Wraith King
Wraith King
233 picks · 351 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 74%
Hero pool strength63% Hellbear Smashers
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total73% Hellbear Smashers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:49
Brame 27%Hellbear Smashers 73%
The model gave 73% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Brame in 1:03:40.
Game 2prediction correct37:30
Brame 27%Hellbear Smashers 73%
The model gave 73% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 40:53.
Game 3prediction missed43:12
Brame 27%Hellbear Smashers 73%
The model gave 73% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Brame in 1:02:30.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellbear Smashers · 73%
Series resultBrame 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3