Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Cascade Esportswin 1:0series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:0
YYGloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Cascade Esports
Rubick
jAMES · 9 games
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Shisui · 6 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
MieRo · 4 games
Iooften banned
Zitraks · 4 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Kidaro · 4 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
Shisui · 4 games
Gyrocopter
Zitraks · 3 games
Mirana
jAMES · 3 games
YG
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
380 picks · 804 bans
Void Spirit
354 picks · 482 bans
Mars
303 picks · 531 bans
Earth Spirit
271 picks · 229 bans
Death Prophet
269 picks · 434 bans
Rubick
249 picks · 148 bans
Keeper of the Light
236 picks · 494 bans
Wraith King
233 picks · 349 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% YG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% YG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteYG · 55%
Series resultCascade Esports 1:0
Series predictionmissed