Paragon Turbina · BO1
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 1:0series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yellow Submarine
Ringmastersignature
Xakoda · 36 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Mirele · 23 games
Lichsignature
Xakoda · 17 games
Batridersignature
not me · 15 games
Windranger
Shigetsu · 14 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Infernal · 13 games
Pangoliersignature
Batyuk · 13 games
Tinysignature
Shigetsu · 13 games
Nemiga Gaming
Hoodwink
ariel · 21 game
Pangolieroften banned
Covisnine · 20 games
Phoenix
VaniLLl · 20 games
Jakiro
VaniLLl · 19 games
Puckoften banned
young G · 17 games
Rubick
ariel · 16 games
Tusk
ariel · 16 games
Axeoften banned
Covisnine · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
495 picks · 354 bans
Rubick
386 picks · 234 bans
Clockwerk
338 picks · 634 bans
Tiny
337 picks · 347 bans
Windranger
316 picks · 230 bans
Pangolier
298 picks · 397 bans
Bane
293 picks · 283 bans
Storm Spirit
287 picks · 310 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 41%
Hero pool strength55% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total53% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:21
Yellow Submarine 49%Nemiga Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 45:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinkerRain
Shadow Fiendbyun
Clinkzbottega
Pangolieryoung G
Brewmasterkae
Centaur WarrunnerCovisnine
RingmasterWein
Techiesraregods
ClockwerkXakoda
BaneJANTER
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 53%
Series resultYellow Submarine 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1