BTS Pro Series Season 5. Америка · BO2
result vs prediction
SG e-sportsloss 1:1series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 1:1
5ManMidasloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
SG e-sports
No games played over 6 months.
5ManMidas
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
379 picks · 799 bans
Void Spirit
352 picks · 478 bans
Mars
301 picks · 529 bans
Earth Spirit
271 picks · 228 bans
Death Prophet
267 picks · 429 bans
Rubick
249 picks · 147 bans
Keeper of the Light
236 picks · 490 bans
Wraith King
231 picks · 346 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 20%
Hero pool strength50% SG e-sports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% SG e-sports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
SG e-sports 64%5ManMidas 36%
The model gave 64% on SG e-sports — the game was taken by SG e-sports.
Game 2prediction missed9:36
SG e-sports 64%5ManMidas 36%
The model gave 64% on SG e-sports — the game was taken by 5ManMidas in 47:23.
Model check result
Model favoriteSG e-sports · 64%
Accuracy by game1 of 2