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FISSURE Universe: Episode 8. Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
Power Rangerswin 2:1
series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Virtus.proloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Power Rangers

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Alberkaaa · 6 games
67%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Immersion · 6 games
17%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Hduo · 5 games
20%
Clinkz
Clinkzoften banned
nesfeer · 4 games
0%
Kunkka
Kunkka
Alberkaaa · 4 games
0%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
nesfeer · 4 games
75%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
nicky`cool · 4 games
75%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
nesfeer · 4 games
50%

Virtus.pro

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Antares · 27 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Abed · 20 games
55%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Fly · 19 games
47%
Puck
Pucksignature
Abed · 18 games
72%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Fly · 17 games
65%
Mars
Marssignature
SabeRLight- · 16 games
63%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Daxak · 15 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Abed · 15 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
531 picks · 865 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
513 picks · 379 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
469 picks · 637 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
457 picks · 590 bans
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
394 picks · 813 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
350 picks · 571 bans
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
341 picks · 573 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
341 picks · 482 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:14
Power Rangers 38%Virtus.pro 62%
The model gave 62% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 25:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunanesfeer
50% · 26 games44% · 103 games
Troll WarlordTimado
Troll Warlord
Tidehunter
TidehunterAlberkaaa
49% · 188 games51% · 59 games
HuskarSerenada
Huskar
Slardar
Slardarnicky`cool
54% · 286 games42% · 207 games
MarsSabeRLight-
Mars
Phoenix
PhoenixImmersion
56% · 146 games47% · 312 games
TinyHellscream
Tiny
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonHduo
57% · 263 games49% · 228 games
SnapfireFly
Snapfire
Game 2prediction missed47:25
Power Rangers 38%Virtus.pro 62%
The model gave 62% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 41:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinnesfeer
54% · 274 games42% · 142 games
Troll WarlordTimado
Troll Warlord
Kunkka
Kunkkanicky`cool
47% · 219 games53% · 344 games
BeastmasterSerenada
Beastmaster
Slardar
SlardarAlberkaaa
56% · 347 games46% · 283 games
MarsSabeRLight-
Mars
Tusk
TuskImmersion
49% · 554 games50% · 431 game
TinyHellscream
Tiny
Phoenix
PhoenixHduo
54% · 205 games48% · 399 games
WarlockFly
Warlock
Game 3prediction missed65:44
Power Rangers 40%Virtus.pro 60%
The model gave 60% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 1:29:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
Razornesfeer
55% · 31 game52% · 172 games
Primal BeastSerenada
Primal Beast
Sand King
Sand Kingnicky`cool
51% · 189 games32% · 28 games
LunaTimado
Luna
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerAlberkaaa
59% · 352 games45% · 529 games
JakiroFly
Jakiro
Chen
ChenHduo
54% · 214 games45% · 265 games
MarsSabeRLight-
Mars
Ringmaster
RingmasterImmersion
57% · 343 games43% · 135 games
Dark WillowHellscream
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 74%
Series resultPower Rangers 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3