EPIC League Season 3. Групповой этап · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChamploss 1:2series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 1:2
HellRaiserswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
378 picks · 795 bans
Void Spirit
351 picks · 475 bans
Mars
299 picks · 529 bans
Earth Spirit
271 picks · 227 bans
Death Prophet
267 picks · 425 bans
Rubick
249 picks · 147 bans
Keeper of the Light
234 picks · 489 bans
Wraith King
230 picks · 344 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 56%
Hero pool strength50% PuckChamp
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total67% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed5:17
PuckChamp 67%HellRaisers 33%
The model gave 67% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 14:32.
Game 2prediction correct31:44
PuckChamp 67%HellRaisers 33%
The model gave 67% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 50:36.
Game 3prediction missed34:4
PuckChamp 67%HellRaisers 33%
The model gave 67% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 23:48.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 67%
Series resultHellRaisers 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3