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PGL Wallachia Season 7. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSloss 1:2
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Rune Eaterswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
asdekor_r · 18 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
dualrazee · 18 games
33%
Warlock
Warlock
asdekor_r · 17 games
35%
Tusk
Tusk
Wein · 16 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
dualrazee · 15 games
53%
Puck
Puckoften banned
dualrazee · 15 games
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
JANTER · 15 games
53%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
Xibbe · 13 games
54%

Rune Eaters

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
ani-san · 54 games
63%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
monodrama · 46 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ethereal · 40 games
55%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Ethereal · 33 games
42%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
ani-san · 31 game
48%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
monodrama · 30 games
80%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
Ankou · 29 games
55%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Ankou · 27 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
530 picks · 863 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
512 picks · 379 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
469 picks · 636 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
458 picks · 590 bans
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
394 picks · 812 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
350 picks · 566 bans
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
341 picks · 572 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
341 picks · 483 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 64%
Hero pool strength55% Rune Eaters
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Rune Eaters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:27
AVULUS 45%Rune Eaters 55%
The model gave 55% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 37:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
Puckdualrazee
50% · 480 games32% · 32 games
Lunayowaai
Luna
Windranger
WindrangerSmiling Knight
56% · 166 games49% · 270 games
Void SpiritEthereal
Void Spirit
Slardar
SlardarCorrupted
53% · 229 games49% · 265 games
BatriderAnkou
Batrider
Phoenix
Phoenixasdekor_r
44% · 136 games58% · 182 games
Chenmonodrama
Chen
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterWein
49% · 158 games49% · 420 games
Tuskani-san
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed34:20
AVULUS 44%Rune Eaters 56%
The model gave 56% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by AVULUS in 44:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerSmiling Knight
51% · 205 games44% · 105 games
Troll Warlordyowaai
Troll Warlord
Queen of Pain
Queen of Paindualrazee
47% · 335 games49% · 298 games
Dragon KnightEthereal
Dragon Knight
Slardar
SlardarCorrupted
49% · 313 games55% · 236 games
BatriderAnkou
Batrider
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerWein
45% · 103 games57% · 143 games
Chenmonodrama
Chen
Phoenix
Phoenixasdekor_r
48% · 194 games53% · 368 games
Tuskani-san
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct48:50
AVULUS 45%Rune Eaters 55%
The model gave 55% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 48:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistSmiling Knight
43% · 37 games54% · 42 games
Lunayowaai
Luna
Tidehunter
TidehunterCorrupted
49% · 155 games61% · 146 games
EnigmaAnkou
Enigma
Tiny
Tinydualrazee
51% · 271 game43% · 220 games
Queen of PainEthereal
Queen of Pain
Batrider
BatriderWein
45% · 267 games44% · 50 games
Ogre Magimonodrama
Ogre Magi
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionasdekor_r
55% · 126 games49% · 398 games
Tuskani-san
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters · 57%
Series resultRune Eaters 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3