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EPIC League Season 3. Групповой этап · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empireloss 1:2
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Dota Teamwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Empire

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
sayuw · 10 games
40%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Petushara · 8 games
63%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
sayuw · 8 games
38%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
sayuw · 7 games
57%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Smiling Knight · 7 games
71%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
sayuw · 5 games
20%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Smiling Knight · 5 games
60%
Disruptor
Disruptor
EcNart · 4 games
50%

Dota Team

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
376 picks · 786 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
348 picks · 468 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
299 picks · 524 bans
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
270 picks · 227 bans
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
266 picks · 418 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
247 picks · 145 bans
51%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
234 picks · 487 bans
54%
Wraith King
Wraith King
229 picks · 335 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 57%
Hero pool strength52% Team Empire
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Team Empire
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:21
Team Empire 54%Dota Team 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 36:50.
Game 2prediction missed26:35
Team Empire 54%Dota Team 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Dota Team in 57:08.
Game 3prediction missed10:23
Team Empire 54%Dota Team 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Dota Team in 33:29.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire · 54%
Series resultDota Team 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3