Snow Sweet Snow #2 · BO5
result vs prediction
ViKin.ggloss 1:3series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:3
Hellbear Smasherswin 3:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ViKin.gg
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 11 games
Puckoften banned
BOOM · 10 games
Earthshakersignature
Aramis · 9 games
Lionsignature
Aramis · 9 games
Earth Spirit
Aramis · 8 games
Grimstrokesignature
Seleri · 8 games
Void Spiritsignature
BOOM · 8 games
Alchemistsignature
KheZu · 7 games
Hellbear Smashers
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 16 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Ace · 15 games
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 13 games
Beastmastersignature
MISERY · 12 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Stormstormer · 12 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Ace · 12 games
Earthshakersignature
Gilgir · 11 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Gilgir · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
375 picks · 783 bans
Void Spirit
347 picks · 467 bans
Mars
298 picks · 524 bans
Earth Spirit
269 picks · 227 bans
Death Prophet
265 picks · 414 bans
Rubick
245 picks · 145 bans
Keeper of the Light
233 picks · 486 bans
Wraith King
228 picks · 333 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 75%
Hero pool strength55% Hellbear Smashers
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total60% Hellbear Smashers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:27
ViKin.gg 45%Hellbear Smashers 55%
The model gave 55% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 44:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordShad
Naga SirenAce
Void SpiritBOOM
InvokerStormstormer
BeastmasterKheZu
PangolierMISERY
EnchantressSeleri
MiranaGilgir
TinyAramis
TusktOfu
Game 2prediction missed28:22
ViKin.gg 43%Hellbear Smashers 57%
The model gave 57% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 34:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetKheZu
WeaverAce
ClinkzShad
PuckStormstormer
Ember SpiritBOOM
BeastmasterMISERY
Dark WillowAramis
PhoenixGilgir
TuskSeleri
MarstOfu
Game 3prediction correct18:31
ViKin.gg 44%Hellbear Smashers 56%
The model gave 56% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 45:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaShad
Troll WarlordAce
Ember SpiritBOOM
EnigmaMISERY
PangolierKheZu
Legion CommanderStormstormer
Earth SpiritAramis
MiranatOfu
Keeper of the LightSeleri
RubickGilgir
Game 4prediction correct11:28
ViKin.gg 44%Hellbear Smashers 56%
The model gave 56% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 38:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetKheZu
Wraith KingAce
LeshracBOOM
Death ProphetStormstormer
MedusaShad
TidehunterMISERY
RubickAramis
Crystal MaidenGilgir
EnchantressSeleri
Elder TitantOfu
Model check result
Model favoriteHellbear Smashers · 60%
Series resultHellbear Smashers 1:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4