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EPIC League Season 3. Групповой этап · BO3
result vs prediction
HellRaisersloss 1:2
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Winstrike Teamwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HellRaisers

No games played over 6 months.

Winstrike Team

Puck
Puckoften banned
re1bl · 12 games
58%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
yamich · 11 games
64%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
yamich · 11 games
73%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
dyrachyo · 9 games
67%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
re1bl · 9 games
56%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
dyrachyo · 9 games
56%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Panto · 8 games
38%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Panto · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
375 picks · 783 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
347 picks · 467 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
298 picks · 524 bans
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
269 picks · 227 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
265 picks · 414 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
245 picks · 145 bans
51%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
233 picks · 486 bans
54%
Wraith King
Wraith King
228 picks · 333 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 60%
Hero pool strength57% Winstrike Team
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total51% Winstrike Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:25
HellRaisers 49%Winstrike Team 51%
The model gave 51% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 31:22.
Game 2prediction correct10:30
HellRaisers 49%Winstrike Team 51%
The model gave 51% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 33:30.
Game 3prediction correct35:9
HellRaisers 49%Winstrike Team 51%
The model gave 51% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 28:21.
Model check result
Model favoriteWinstrike Team · 51%
Series resultWinstrike Team 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3