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EPIC League Season 3. Групповой этап · BO3
result vs prediction
Brameloss 0:2
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Brame

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
CTOMAHEH1 · 14 games
43%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
SsaSpartan · 12 games
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 10 games
70%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
SkyLark · 9 games
67%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
SsaSpartan · 9 games
44%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 8 games
75%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
W1sh- · 8 games
50%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Focus · 8 games
38%

Tundra Esports

Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Skiter · 4 games
50%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Skiter · 4 games
75%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Fata · 3 games
33%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
33 · 3 games
33%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Fata · 3 games
100%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Fata · 3 games
0%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Nine · 3 games
67%
Abaddon
Abaddon
33 · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
375 picks · 783 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
347 picks · 467 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
298 picks · 524 bans
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
269 picks · 226 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
265 picks · 412 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
245 picks · 145 bans
51%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
233 picks · 485 bans
54%
Wraith King
Wraith King
228 picks · 331 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 44%
Hero pool strength51% Brame
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Brame
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:10
Brame 72%Tundra Esports 28%
The model gave 72% on Brame — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 24:04.
Game 2prediction missed23:45
Brame 72%Tundra Esports 28%
The model gave 72% on Brame — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 38:31.
Model check result
Model favoriteBrame · 72%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2